Key Takeaways
- Long-Term Bitcoin Holders (LTH) are actively selling, signaling potential cycle top formation.
- LTH supply exceeds Short-Term Holder (STH) supply, historically a precursor to market reversals.
- On-chain metrics suggest the 2025 Bitcoin bull run may be nearing its end, though residual upside remains possible.
Analyzing Long-Term Holder Behavior
Bitcoin’s market cycles often culminate when long-term holders (LTHs) begin offloading assets. The Long-Term Holder Behavior Analysis indicator reveals critical patterns:
Profit-Taking Phases:
- When LTH spending and MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) enter "green zones," cycle tops typically follow.
- Past cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) saw this occur twice, with the second exit marking prolonged downturns.
- The current cycle has maintained a green zone for 3 months—longer than 2013/2021 but shorter than 2017.
Profit Margins:
- LTHs historically cash out once profits exceed 350%, with prices often rising 4x further.
- Current margins hover slightly above 350%, suggesting limited upside before exhaustion.
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LTH vs. STH Supply Thresholds
The LTH-STH Supply Threshold highlights shifting ownership:
- LTHs (13M BTC) began distributing aggressively in September 2024, transferring holdings to STHs (4M BTC).
- In 2017/2021, STH supply surpassed LTH supply (black/white circles), signaling cycle peaks.
- While no crossover has occurred yet, the narrowing gap indicates looming market saturation.
| Metric | Current Cycle | 2017 Peak | 2021 Peak |
|-----------------|---------------|-----------|-----------|
| LTH Supply | 13M BTC | 10M BTC | 11M BTC |
| STH Supply | 4M BTC | 12M BTC | 6M BTC |
Realized Cap HODL Waves: Age-Based Distribution
The Realized Cap HODL Wave tracks transaction age to identify cycle inflection points:
- Cycle tops coincide with 70%+ activity from coins held <3 months.
- The 2-3 year band (2022–2023 buyers) has nearly exited, now holding just 5% of supply vs. ~2% in prior peaks.
This suggests:
- Bear market accumulators have fully realized profits.
- Residual demand may extend the cycle, but momentum is fading.
FAQs
Q: How long do Bitcoin bull markets typically last after LTHs start selling?
A: Historically, 3–6 months post-LTH distribution, though 2025’s elongated green zone may shorten this window.
Q: Can Bitcoin’s price still rise despite LTH sell-offs?
A: Yes, but gains are usually marginal (e.g., 10–20%) before sharp corrections.
Q: What’s the most reliable on-chain indicator for cycle tops?
A: Convergence of LTH profit margins >350%, STH supply surges, and HODL Wave depletion offers the clearest signals.
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Conclusion: Navigating the Cycle’s End
Multiple on-chain metrics—LTH distribution, supply threshold convergence, and HODL Wave dynamics—point to a maturing Bitcoin cycle. While short-term volatility may persist, the overarching trend suggests 2025’s bull run is approaching its climax. Investors should consider risk management strategies to safeguard profits.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risks; conduct independent research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.
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