Written by NingNing
The crypto market widely believes that after the Cancun upgrade, Ethereum Layer 2 (L2) average gas fees will drop by 10x or more.
This expectation stems from EIP-4844, the core protocol of the Cancun upgrade, which introduces three dedicated Blob spaces for storing L2 transaction and state data. These Blobs feature an independent gas fee market. Each Blob can hold data roughly equivalent to one Ethereum mainnet block (~1.77MB).
Current Gas Fee Dynamics
- Ethereum mainnet daily gas consumption: 107.9B
- Rollup L2s’ gas consumption share: ~10%
Supply-Demand Economics
Gas price = Total demand / Total supply
If post-Cancun:
- Demand remains constant
- Supply increases 30x (from ~10% of 1 block to 3 full Blob blocks)
Theoretical gas price drop: 1/30th of current rates.
However, this linear assumption oversimplifies real-world factors—especially competition among Rollup L2s for Blob space.
Key Components of L2 Gas Fees
- Data Availability (DA) Storage Fees (~90% of costs)
- DA Verification Fees
Post-Cancun, the three new Blob spaces act as common-pool resources. According to Coase’s theory, in a free-market scenario:
Leading L2s may overuse Blob space to:
- Secure market dominance
- Stifle competitors
Market Behavior Insights
- Top Rollup L2s show seasonal profit fluctuations without sustained growth.
- The market is zero-sum, with fierce competition for developers, users, and dApps.
- Post-upgrade, Blob space becomes another battleground.
Potential Abuse of Blob Space
Leading L2s might:
Increase Sequencer Batch frequency from minutes to every ~12 seconds (matching Ethereum’s block time).
- Benefits: Faster transaction finality + monopolizing Blob space.
- Spike verification/Batch fees, offsetting Blob space’s cost-reducing effects.
Result: Diminishing Returns
- Initial gas fee drops will marginally decline.
- Beyond a threshold, Blob expansion’s impact plateaus.
Conclusion
While Cancun will reduce L2 gas fees, the decline may fall short of 90%+ expectations due to competitive strategies and fee structure shifts.
FAQ
Q1: What is EIP-4844?
A1: A core Cancun upgrade protocol adding Blob spaces to lower L2 data storage costs.
Q2: Why won’t gas fees drop 90%?
A2: L2s may compete for Blob space, increasing verification fees and offsetting savings.
Q3: How do Blobs affect scalability?
A3: They expand data capacity but incentivize strategic overuse by dominant L2s.
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Q4: What’s the long-term outlook for L2 fees?
A4: Fees will stabilize as L2s balance efficiency and competition, but dramatic drops are unlikely.
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Disclaimer: This content is informational only. Always conduct independent research and assess risks before engaging with crypto assets.