Macroeconomic Data
Early August saw the release of non-farm payroll data, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, triggering market panic due to the impending recession indicator—the Sahm Rule. The probability of a 50-basis-point Fed rate cut in September surged.
Key U.S. economic warnings:
- Rising unemployment and small business default rates.
- July PPI year-on-year: 2.2% (expected 2.3%).
- July CPI year-on-year: 2.9%, marking the first return to "2%" since March 2021.
Market sentiment stabilized slightly post-PPI/CPI data, with a 100% probability priced in for a 25-basis-point cut in September.
U.S. Election Polls
- Harris led Trump by <3 points in polls.
- Polymarket predicted a 77% Harris win on August 13, but her support declined after her August 16 policy speech, leveling with Trump by August 18.
- Trump publicly endorsed cryptocurrencies; Harris remains silent on crypto.
BTC/ETH Performance (August 12–18):
- BTC: ~$59K.
- ETH: ~$2,600.
Flow Data (Coinglass):
- BTC: Net inflow of 600.23 BTC (except August 14 outflow of 1,344.33 BTC).
- ETH: Net outflow of 5,673.7 ETH (slower outflow rate).
On-Chain Data
- Fear & Greed Index: 25 (August 17) — "Fear" territory.
- MVRV: 1.55 (August 16), down from 2024 peak of 3.03 (March 13).
- CME BTC Open Interest: Slight rebound after July 23 decline.
TVL:
- Ethereum/L2s: Minor declines (-2% avg).
- Base: +2% growth.
- Sui: +10% surge.
Web3 Funding Highlights (August 12–17)
Total Raised: $173.4M+ across 15 projects.
Top 5 Funded Projects:
Chaos Labs ($55M) — Automated economic security for crypto protocols.
- Sector: Infrastructure.
Sahara ($43M) — Decentralized AI network for knowledge agents.
- Sector: AI.
Sling ($15M) — Global remittance app using USDP.
- Sector: Payments.
Essential ($11M) — Intent-based infrastructure for L2.
- Sector: Infrastructure/L2.
Parfin ($10M) — Latin American Web3 infrastructure (Parchain development).
- Sector: Infrastructure.
Actionable Opportunities
- Upcoming TGE Projects: Curated list of projects launching tokens in 2–3 months.
👉 Explore potential TGE projects here Babylon Staking:
- Mainnet Phase 1: Cap of 1,000 BTC (min 0.005 BTC, max 0.05 BTC).
- OKX collaboration专区 available.
FAQ
Q1: How does the Sahm Rule impact crypto markets?
A: It signals recession risks, increasing volatility as traders anticipate Fed policy shifts.
Q2: Why is Base TVL growing while other L2s decline?
A: Base’s developer incentives and lower fees attract more protocols.
Q3: What makes Chaos Labs unique?
A: Its real-time protocol risk simulations prevent exploits before deployment.
Q4: How can I participate in Babylon staking via OKX?
A: Navigate to OKX’s Babylon专区 and follow the step-by-step guide.