The on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has identified five key Bitcoin indicators that reveal critical market dynamics beyond surface-level price movements.
1. Realized Price
The Realized Price estimates the average cost basis of Bitcoin investors, often acting as a major support/resistance level. The short-term holder Realized Price (investors holding for ≤155 days) currently shows BTC trading above this threshold, indicating net profitability for this cohort.
#Historical Significance#
- Bullish Phase: Sustained price above Realized Price signals strong investor confidence.
- Bearish Phase: Drops below this level may indicate capitulation. 2. Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)
The SOPR measures profit/loss realization during transactions. Values >1 imply profit-taking, while <1 suggest loss dominance. Recent data shows short-term holders locking in profits, which could temporarily suppress price momentum.
👉 Learn how SOPR impacts market cycles
3. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)
NUPL tracks unrealized gains/losses across the network. Extreme highs often precede sell-offs (investors cashing out profits), while extreme lows may signal market bottoms (weak hands exiting).
| NUPL Range | Market Implication |
|------------------|-----------------------------|
| >0.75 | High profit-taking risk |
| <0 | Potential accumulation zone | 4. Holder Supply Distribution
The balance between short-term holders (≤155 days) and long-term holders (≥155 days) reflects market sentiment. A rising long-term holder supply suggests growing HODLing behavior, often a bullish sign.
5. Open Interest
Futures market Open Interest measures speculative activity. Recent record highs indicate elevated volatility risk, as extreme leverage often precedes sharp price corrections.
BTC Price Analysis
Bitcoin retraced to $108,000 after recent highs, with sideways movement suggesting consolidation. Traders should monitor the above indicators for breakout or reversal signals.
FAQ Section
Q1: Why is the Realized Price important?
A: It reflects the average investor’s cost basis, highlighting psychological support/resistance levels.
Q2: How does SOPR predict market turns?
A: Sustained SOPR >1 signals overheated buying, while SOPR <1 may indicate oversold conditions.
Q3: What’s the risk of high Open Interest?
A: Excessive leverage can amplify price swings, leading to liquidations and cascading volatility.
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