Market participants overestimate Telegram's user engagement. TON faces constraints in its programming language and Telegram's end-market distribution, compounded by its excessively high FDV.
Telegram's Lower-Than-Expected User Engagement
Telegram boasts global influence with substantial daily active users (DAU), theoretically funneling users to TON. By this metric, Telegram ranks among the world's most-used apps.
According to Telegram's data:
- 900 million total users (8th globally among apps)
DAU/MAU ratio of just 15%, significantly lower than competitors:
- Facebook: 69%
- WeChat: 67%
- Instagram: 60%
- TikTok (US-only): 49%
- Twitter/X: 45%
This indicates weaker market penetration and monetizable user base than projected.
EVM Incompatibility and Niche Programming Languages
TON’s ecosystem faces development hurdles due to:
- No EVM compatibility: TON Virtual Machine (TVM) uses an asynchronous architecture vs. Ethereum’s synchronous EVM, ruling out Solidity-based dApps.
Limited adoption of FunC: TON’s primary language (similar to C) lacks traction. Per a 2023 developer survey:
- Rust: >80% developer retention intent
- Solidity: 46.4% adoption interest
- FunC: Minimal recognition
Geographic Limitations in End-Market Coverage
TON’s growth narrative assumes Telegram will mirror WeChat’s dominance—but WeChat serves a concentrated Chinese market, while Telegram’s user base is fragmented:
Top 2022 Download Regions:
- India: 104M
- Russia: 34M
- Indonesia: 27M
- USA: 26M
- Brazil: 21.94M
- Egypt: 14.85M
This dispersion complicates scalability for startups leveraging Telegram’s distribution.
Overvalued FDV Metrics
Despite potential, TON’s valuation lacks safety margins:
- FDV/DEX Volume: 8.6x (highest among major chains)
- FDV/Annual Fees: 927x (top-tier multiples)
👉 Explore high-potential blockchain projects to diversify beyond overextended valuations.
FAQ: TON Network Viability
Q: Can TON overcome its EVM incompatibility?
A: Unlikely without significant architectural shifts or layer-2 solutions bridging to EVM chains.
Q: Why does Telegram’s DAU/MAU ratio matter?
A: Low ratios signal weaker habitual use, reducing sustainable demand for TON-based apps.
Q: Is FunC a dealbreaker for developers?
A: Yes—most prioritize ecosystems with Rust/Solidity support to leverage existing skills.
Q: How might TON improve its market positioning?
A: Strategic partnerships in high-adoption regions (e.g., India) could offset geographic fragmentation.
👉 Compare TON’s metrics against leading Layer 1s for deeper investment insights.
Content synthesized from Blockworks Research and PANews. Hyperlinks removed per guidelines.