80% of Profits Are Made in the Last 20% of the Cycle
Nearly halfway through 2024, crypto has already delivered a historic year:
- January: Bitcoin ETFs debuted.
- April: The fourth Bitcoin halving occurred.
- Coming Soon: Ethereum ETFs begin trading.
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) are up 52% and 48% year-to-date, respectively. Since early 2023, BTC has surged ~300%, while ETH gained ~200%. Yet, this bull run is far from over.
👉 Key Insight: Research indicates we’re only halfway through this cycle.
Bitcoin’s Predictable Halving Pattern
The April 19 halving triggered a familiar cycle:
- Bottom: Prices typically trough 12–18 months pre-halving.
- Rally: Prices rise into the halving.
- Post-Halving Boom: Major gains follow in the next year.
Past Halving Returns:
- 1st Halving: 8,000% BTC surge.
- 2nd Halving: 30X gains.
- 3rd Halving: 6X appreciation.
BTC’s 300%+ rebound from late 2022 lows aligns perfectly with historical trends. Current sideways action post-halving? Normal. The biggest gains lie ahead.
✅ Takeaway: We’re in the 4th–5th inning of this bull market.
On-Chain Metrics Confirm the Bull Run
Glassnode data shows the current cycle (black line) mirroring past bull markets:
(Source: Glassnode)
On-Chain Signals:
- Adoption Growth: New wallets and transactions rising.
- HODLing Strength: Long-term holders dominate supply.
- Profit Cycles: ~80% of gains occur in the final 20% of the cycle.
Volatility Warning: Expect pullbacks, but stay focused. The next 12–18 months could deliver outsized returns.
FAQ: Navigating the Bitcoin Cycle
1. When Will the Bull Market Peak?
Likely late 2025, based on halving timelines and on-chain trends.
2. Which Crypto Performs Best Now?
- BTC: Projected $150K+ (~120% upside).
- ETH: Potential to outperform BTC.
- Small-Cap Gems: Crypto businesses with real revenue.
3. Should I Fear a Crash?
Volatility is inevitable, but history favors holders.
Strategic Investing in the Current Cycle
👉 Top Picks:
- Bitcoin: Core holding for steady gains.
- Ethereum: ETF hype could fuel a rally.
- Undervalued Altcoins: Focus on projects with utility.
🚀 Final Thought: The best opportunities emerge late in the cycle. Stay patient, stay informed.