Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is a powerful on-chain metric that evaluates the profitability of Bitcoin held for less than 155 days by comparing its Market Value to its Realized Value. This indicator helps traders and investors gauge market sentiment, identify potential turning points, and assess risk-reward dynamics.
Understanding STH-MVRV
Core Components
Market Value
Calculated as:
Current Bitcoin Price × Circulating Supply- Represents the total market capitalization of Bitcoin at its present price.
Realized Value
Derived from:
Realized Price (last movement price) × Circulating Supply- Reflects the average cost basis of short-term holders (STHs), indicating the "true" value of their holdings.
Interpreting STH-MVRV
| Value Range | Interpretation | Market Implication |
|-----------------|-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|
| < 1 | Market Value < Realized Value (STHs are at a loss) | Potential capitulation or undervaluation |
| = 1 | Breakeven point (Market Value = Realized Value) | Key support/resistance level |
| > 1 | Market Value > Realized Value (STHs are in profit) | Overbought conditions or bullish momentum |
Extended Metrics
STH-MVRV (MVRV)
- Compares Bitcoin’s current MVRV ratio to its 155-day SMA.
- Focus: Profitability trends of short-term holders.
STH-MVRV (Price)
- Compares Bitcoin’s current price to its 155-day SMA.
- Focus: Price momentum relative to historical averages.
STH-MVRV (AVG)
- Averages the above two metrics to provide a balanced view of value + momentum.
Practical Applications
Identifying Market Extremes:
- Values significantly >1 may signal overbought conditions.
- Values <1 often coincide with buying opportunities.
Spotting Trend Reversals:
- Crossings above/below 1 can indicate shifts in market sentiment.
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FAQs
Q1: Why is the 155-day threshold used for STH-MVRV?
A: This period captures the average holding duration of short-term traders, filtering out long-term "hodlers" whose behavior differs.
Q2: How does STH-MVRV differ from traditional MVRV?
A: Traditional MVRV assesses all Bitcoin, while STH-MVRV targets coins held <155 days, offering sharper short-term signals.
Q3: Can STH-MVRV predict Bitcoin price bottoms?
A: Historically, sustained values <1 have marked accumulation zones, but always confirm with additional indicators.
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Key Takeaways
- STH-MVRV is a sentiment indicator highlighting short-term holder profitability.
- Combines market value and cost basis to reveal undervaluation/overvaluation.
- Use alongside price action (e.g., 155-day SMA) for higher-confidence signals.
For open-source script details, refer to the original TradingView publication.