The competition to secure approval for cryptocurrency ETFs is intensifying as the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) continues to evaluate multiple applications. With Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs already gaining traction, attention has now shifted to altcoins like Solana (SOL), XRP, Litecoin (LTC), and Hedera (HBAR). Analysts and industry experts are closely monitoring which crypto ETF might receive approval first in 2025.
Rising Confidence in Solana ETFs
Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, estimates an 85% chance of the SEC approving Solana ETFs by the end of 2025—a significant increase from earlier projections of 45%. This upward revision reflects growing investor confidence in Solana's potential.
Major asset management firms such as Grayscale, VanEck, and Bitwise have already submitted proposals for Solana ETFs, signaling strong institutional interest. However, the SEC's recent classification of SOL as a security in ongoing legal disputes introduces uncertainty. Experts suggest this could delay approval despite high market demand.
Adding to the optimism, Volatility Shares has filed for Solana futures ETFs. While these futures aren’t yet available on regulated exchanges, the move is seen as a positive step toward broader adoption of Solana-based financial products.
Litecoin and Hedera ETFs: Regulatory Advantages
Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart predict that Litecoin and Hedera ETFs are more likely to gain approval ahead of Solana and XRP. Their reasoning? Litecoin and Hedera face fewer regulatory hurdles compared to Solana and XRP, which the SEC has classified as securities.
Litecoin’s similarity to Bitcoin and Hedera’s innovative hashgraph technology could make them attractive to investors post-approval. Analysts believe these factors position them as strong candidates for the next wave of crypto ETF approvals.
XRP ETFs: Legal Challenges Loom
Polymarket gives XRP ETFs a 70% chance of approval, but significant legal obstacles remain due to the ongoing SEC lawsuit against Ripple. Although Ripple secured a partial victory in court, the question of whether XRP qualifies as a security remains unresolved.
Asset managers like Franklin Templeton and Bitwise have filed for XRP ETFs, demonstrating institutional confidence. However, experts caution that lingering legal issues may delay SEC approval until after leadership changes at the agency—potentially under a more crypto-friendly administration.
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FAQs
1. Which crypto ETF is most likely to be approved first in 2025?
Litecoin and Hedera ETFs are currently seen as frontrunners due to their clearer regulatory status.
2. Why is Solana’s ETF approval uncertain?
The SEC has classified SOL as a security, creating potential delays in the approval process.
3. What are the chances of an XRP ETF being approved?
Polymarket estimates a 70% chance, but legal hurdles could push approval timelines further out.
4. How might SEC leadership changes affect ETF approvals?
A new SEC chair in 2025 could adopt a more favorable stance toward crypto ETFs, accelerating approvals.
5. What role do institutional filings play in ETF approvals?
Submissions from major firms like Grayscale and VanEck signal strong demand, influencing SEC decisions.
Market Outlook
The crypto ETF landscape is evolving rapidly, with Solana, Litecoin, Hedera, and XRP all vying for approval. While regulatory clarity remains a key factor, institutional interest and market demand continue to drive progress.
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Key Takeaways:
- Solana ETFs face regulatory uncertainty but have strong institutional backing.
- Litecoin and Hedera ETFs benefit from fewer legal complications.
- XRP ETFs hinge on the resolution of ongoing SEC litigation.
As the SEC’s evaluation process unfolds, 2025 could mark a pivotal year for crypto ETFs—with the potential to reshape institutional investment in digital assets.